November 6th, 2014 • iizthatiiz
The Democratic Party is Leaving Louisiana
At least the national party has departed. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has canceled all advertising that was scheduled to run on behalf of incumbent Mary Landrieu. The runoff election between Landrieu and challenger Bill Cassidy is scheduled for December 6th.
Although Landrieu narrowly edged out challenger Bill Cassidy in last Tuesdays election by a margin of 42% to 41%, neither achieved a 50% majority. Due to the open nature of Louisiana elections, there was a third candidate in the race, Republican Rob Maness who drew a hefty 14% of the vote. But Landrieu won’t be facing two Republicans next month. She’ll be facing just one and her prospects are daunting.
While the appetite of GOP voters might be largely sated nationally, in Louisiana it’s still whet. Still, expect some dampened turnout for Cassidy in a runoff election. The Democratic base however, is mostly lying concussed on the ground and it is unknown how many of them will be willing or able to stagger to the polls.
With support from the national party yanked, any hopes Landrieu had of remaining competitive are gone. Even though virtually tied with Cassidy in the general, let’s not forget the rather large contingent of Col. Rob Maness. A plurality of Maness supporters will turnout, with 90+ percent voting Republican. I’m no Nate Silver with a quantum computer, but I’ll just eyeball the numbers and say that Cassidy comes in at 58.5%, and Landrieu at 41.5%, barring any unforeseen campaign calamities.
Will Democratic colleagues open their wallets? While some have war chests they’ve barely scratched, many are aware that they too may be potentially ‘out of work’ in 2016, and will be reluctant to go on any spending sprees. No, expect her staunch Senate friends to take a powder.
Landrieu will have to rely on local resources and whatever reserves her campaign has stashed to limp her effort to the finish the line. With her families deep political ties, she will still receive some token support from longtime allies. A few expressions from a handful of groups, but no one is going to invest in this election. Only small amounts to maintain a friendship with Mary.
Yes, Mary has been largely abandoned. Fellow Democrats will mostly stand aside and let her take a whipping next December, desperate to keep their distance from another election after last Tuesdays clobbering. A seat that only weeks ago the party had banked on maintaining is now a lost cause. And a colleague who until just yesterday was considered an integral cog in the Democratic machine, has been left out exposed to take a lashing from voters, as her erstwhile “friends” pray this offering will soothe an angry electorate.